The average price of sold homes in the Quinte market dropped 12% from February to March of 2022, but is that a reflection of a crashing real estate market? All data points to no.

Speculation over what will happen in the local, provincial, and national real estate scene is at an all time high with every financial advisor, economist, and realtor predicting a different outcome. Truth be told, no one has a crystal ball and while it is impossible to say for sure one way or the other, there is strong evidence to show that out crazy seller’s market is not going anywhere anytime soon.

Every year (yes, every single one for the last four years) as spring market picks up and new inventory floods the market, average sales price stagnates and takes a little dip. This year, impacted by the opening of travel, increases to the Bank of Canada prime rate, and buyers who are rightfully exhausted from months of looking for houses unsuccessfully the stagnation and decrease in the real estate market seemed more pronounced than in years past.

January and February are traditionally the most expensive months to purchase property in the Quinte area. This is fueled by low inventory and desperate buyers trying to get through the doors of a new home.

Late March through mid-May see more inventory and more opportunities for buyers trying to get into the market or buy a new home. Instead of one house for every ten buyers, there are four or five houses for ten buyers. This changes the distribution of multiple offers and often results in more digestible sales prices. This flood of new inventory doesn’t last long though. Come posting season for CFB Trenton and typical HHT timelines, by the end of May through mid July start to see fewer and fewer properties sitting on the market.

So, is the sky falling? Did you make a bad investment by paying high in February? Absolutely not. 

Trenton and the Quinte area’s real estate market follows a very predictable and stable pattern (though the numbers over the last two years have been much steeper, they still follow the typical increase and decrease patterns). Over the last 20 years, we have seen consistent positive growth and appreciation and predictable annual decreases in the spring. This shift in the month’s average prices typically corrects itself by June. By the fall, appreciation is on its way back to sky high numbers.

While there’s no way to tell for certain, we can only make the educated guess that 2022 will be no different than the past 20 years.

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